Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The mean count of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that murder figures may not indicate better countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” the President remarked, adding that in November the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, security experts warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.